Alright Folks, we’re going to break down three games from Week 6 and their subsequent fantasy impacts. Then we’ll hit up the Big-3 knee injuries of the week and play some chutes and ladders to see who’s sliding downward and who’s climbing on up. Let’s roll.
WEEK 6 GAME RECAPS
Green Bay vs. Miami:
Boy that ending was predictable wasn’t it. Miami leading; Green Bay struggling; then… Aaron Rodgers leads a game-winning drive as time expires. You could have fooled me that it was a road game. The Cheesehead faithful showed up in droves in Miami. I’m sure Andrew Quarless almost went for the Lambeau leap after catching the game-winner.
-Eddie Lacy owners, I give you permission to let out a big groan. I’ve hyped him, I’ve told you to be patient, I’ve cited his cupcake schedule from here forward, but if the Packers won’t give him the workload, then I don’t know how we can rely on him as anything more than a TD-dependent RB2 going forward. After I courageously ranked him as my 12th ranked player overall last week, reports began surfacing that McCarthy wanted Lacy and James Starks to have more of a 50-50 workload split. Lacy still out-carried Starks by a ratio of 14:6, but Starks was more productive and also caught a couple of passes and most importantly was on the field when the game was on the line. I’m trying not to be too reactionary to one week, but if you can still get 90 cents on the dollar for Eddie Lacy this week, I don’t know how you can pass it up.
-Davante Adams seems to be carving out a nice role as the 3rd WR in an Aaron Rodgers led offense, and the less talented Jared Boykin has shown us in the past that that spot in this offense can produce fantasy value (particularly with all the 3-receiver sets that Green Bay runs these days). Rodgers claimed he saw separation on tape of Adams last week and true to his word, he looked Adams more often in Miami (8 targets, 6 receptions, 77 yards).
-Jordy Nelson is the best wide receiver in fake sports. I was jostling between Jordy, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones last week. The juxtaposition of the offensive woes in Pittsburgh and Atlanta compared to the greased lightning in Green Bay has me firmly in Jordy’s camp. If you were smart enough to zap him up in the late second round of your draft, kudos to you. 68 targets from Aaron Rodgers can go a long way despite in spite of one’s talent level, but Jordy’s got book-oodles of talent to boot.
-Mike Wallace has scored a TD in four out of his five games played. The yardage leaves some to be desired, but he should be consistent moving forward as the true number one guy in Miami.
-Jarvis Landry caught 5 balls for 71 yards and a TD. With Brian Hartline struggling and Brandon Gibson hurt, he could be the number 2 target in this offense. But how many fantasy-relevant wide receivers can Ryan Tannehill really support?
-Lamar Miller is the real deal. See the injury section below for more on my thoughts.
-On a non-fantasy note: Aaron Rodgers has done the fake spike several times in his career. This one almost cost him the game, if Davante Adams had not magically found his way out-of-bounds. Let’s not call this a phenomenal play or even a surprising one. It was a bit of trickery that was ill-advised and not novel.
San Francisco vs. St. Louis:
Firstly, this game could have gone a lot differently than what was considered a predictable win by the 49ers. At the end of the first half, the refs throw a phantom Offensive Pass-Interference flag on Jared Cook as Austin Davis hit him on a crossing route for the first down at the 25 yard line. Replay shows nothing, not even an extended arm that could have been mistaken for P.I. Now the Rams are out of field goal range and are forced to punt. Janoris Jenkins then allows the longest passing TD with less than 30 seconds in league history when Collin Kaepernick connects with Brandon Lloyd for an 80-yard TD strike. Let’s be clear, this was not Jenkins fault for getting burnt. This was Rams’ DC Gregg Williams fault for not having 3 deep safeties with less than 30 seconds on the clock and 80 yards to go. Thus, perhaps the worst turn of events ever at the end of a first half ever occurs. The Rams should have at the very least been up 17-3 if not 21-3 going into halftime if not for the awful P.I. call. That changes the entire dynamic of the second half. *off soap box now*
-Brian Quick was nowhere to be found in this game. 4 targets, 1 reception, 10 yards. Perhaps the 49ers just took him out of the game by blanketing him. Regardless, the Rams gauntlet of a schedule moving forward (Dick Sherman matchup next week) will make it hard to expect Quick to be a consistent performer over the next 8 weeks.
-Tre Mason got 5 carries for 40 yards and came out looking like the best back this week. Tre Watts got the start last week. Benny Cunningham gets in the mix often. These are what we call Zac Stacy roadblocks, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. I’ve been scared of Stacy ever since Cunningham got equal work this preseason. Sell low on Stacy. This backfield’s a mess and I don’t see how you can trust any of them. If the Rams begin playing for the future at some point in the next month, Mason could step forward as the clear-cut number one. As for right now, he’s still raw in pass protection and receiving.
-Tavon Austin sighting. Getting him involved in the backfield with three carries was promising, though he’s got to show more to be considered anything other than a deep-league stash.
-Brandon Lloyd is not going to be a consistent fantasy performer and is not worth a pickup.
-I don’t really trust Michael Crabtree to be a week in and week out performer with so many mouths to feed in this offense. He had just six yards per reception coming into Monday night’s game, and he finally made it to the end zone for the first time in three games on the beautiful double move. When Kaepernick and Crabtree have been healthy throughout their careers, their chemistry has been remarkable. It’s just simply not the case this year. Kaepernick is spreading the ball around too much and not locking in on Crabtree like in the past. With Crabtree scoring a big TD with the whole nation watching, your sell window is right now.
-Colin Kaepernick continues to be a solid but unspectacular producer. Without the all-time flukey 80-yard TD to end the first half, his numbers look pedestrian. He’s a backend QB1 and I don’t see that changing this season.
Dallas vs. Seattle:
Wow Jerry Jones, wow. People have crucified you for not putting a great product on the field for over a decade. Then you go out and take the unsexy picks in the early rounds by going with guys in the trenches and show everyone how to build a team. Romo’s gotten the unfair snub for always choking in the 4th quarter despite having one of the highest 4th Quarter QB-ratings in history. This was a statement game for Dallas. On the road in Seattle. The score could have even been more one-sided than it was. Bravo Dallas.
-I know I’m beginning to sound like a broken record on DeMarco Murray, but the pace has simply got to slow. I stumped hard for picking up Joseph Randle last week. I hope you did it before his owner got wise and rostered him after his solid relief production in the toughest environment in football. Apparently Randle wanted to take a victory lap for his efforts, as he shop-lifted a tester bottle of cologne and some underwear from a department store. Clearly those NFL salaries don’t stretch as far as they used to. Stay apprised of the legal fallout, but as for now it doesn’t appear that there will be any team discipline.
-You know how everyone thought that the poor Dallas Defense was going to be a major boon for Tony Romo’s passing numbers. Well the surprisingly stout Dallas Defense is correspondingly hampering Romo’s passing numbers. There’s no need to air it out a ton when you have an elite running game and a serviceable defense. This environment will continue to depress the Dallas passing game, and despite Romo’s efficiency, he’ll just be a fringe starter in standard leagues going forward.
-Marshawn Lynch was criminally underused in this game, it won’t happen again. Pete Carroll is too smart for that.
-Russell Wilson was due for a bad game after coming off such a stellar performance last Monday night. Okay, I don’t actually believe in the “he’s due” bias but he’ll bounce back.
-I mentioned last week that I was weary of Percy Harvin despite the thrice called-back TD opportunities on Monday night. He’s simply not getting the ball downfield, he’s not been productive, and the extensive injury history looms. He was always a guy you could count on to be productive when he saw the field. In this offense, not so much. He’s a borderline WR3 at the moment and fading quickly.
INJURIES
Before today’s season-ending torn ACL injury news breaking on Knowshon Moreno, it was looking like a relatively quiet week on the injury front. The only other major fantasy-relevant injuries being Victor Cruz and Stevan Ridley both being shelved for the remainder of the season with major knee injuries as well. Victor Cruz with the torn Patellar tendon and Ridley with the torn ACL/MCL. Everything you read about the Patellar injury is that it is far scarier and more painful than the torn ACL/MCL. I’ve seen people saying to trade for Victor Cruz in dynasty leagues since he is at his lowest point right now. Though, I’m not sure that a guy that needs his fluidity and burst to be elite will ever quite be the same after an injury like this. The Patellar Tendon tear seems far more worrisome than the torn ACL/MCL. Regardless, all three are on IR for the remainder of the season, so plan accordingly. As far as fantasy impact goes on their replacement, I think Lamar Miller immediately jumps up to high-end RB2 levels and possibly sneaks to the back-end of the RB1 conversation, depending on the weekly match-ups. He’s one of the toolsiest players I’ve seen to get so little love from pundits. I actually put in an offer for him yesterday morning before the Knowshon Moreno news broke. Unfortunately it may be tougher for me to get him now. I’m a believer in Lamar Miller. As far as how the New England backfield shakes out, your guess is as good as mine… perhaps better! Only Belichick knows, and then again, I don’t even know if he does. Brandon Bolden probably benefits the most, and perhaps preseason hype-monster James White starts being activated and relevant for the first time. Jonas Gray could get a look off the practice squad too. My guess is that Bolden will have the biggest role increase, but will be maddeningly frustrating to own. One week he’ll have 18 carries for 85 yards and a TD, the next week he’ll get 8 carries for 31 yards; such is life in a Foxborough backfield. I think we see Shane Vereen actually benefit the most with a more consistent number of carries, and Tom Brady will increase his pass attempts to compensate as well. As for the Giants receiving corps, I think we see Odell Beckham Jr. start to play some out of the slot, and target increases for both Reuben Randle and Larry Donnell as well. Basically everyone other than Eli Manning should see a slight uptick in value.
There’s talk of Calvin Johnson sitting out a couple more weeks, yuck. Hopefully when he comes back, he’ll be in full swing for the home stretch of the season. Matthew Stafford continues to struggle in his absence, and is simply not startable in standard league right now.
Over the weekend, the news broke that Jimmy Graham might sit a week or two. Keep a close eye on it. Original news was that he would have played if not for the bye week. In Week 7 of 2013, Graham had a foot injury and was a game-time decision. After he didn’t practice all week, he played and ended up scoring two TDs on just three receptions. In other words, if he’s active, play him. If not, make sure you don’t drop your bye week fill-in from this past week.
Carson Palmer says he’s still only 80% coming back from the nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. But, 80% of Palmer is better than 100% of Drew Stanton or Logan Thomas. If you can acquire Michael Floyd on the cheap, do so. His production level can be a high-end WR2 with Palmer under center.
Cleveland Browns’ center, “The Secret World of Alex Mack”, is out of the season with a broken fibula. It’s a shame, because the Browns have been perhaps the best run blocking O-line outside of Dallas. His presence will be missed, and we’ll see how much it affects both the run and pass blocking. Ben Tate is the real deal when healthy, and Isaiah Crowell needs to be universally owned. Crowell is the backup to own with Terrence West being a healthy inactive this week, and Tate is not exactly a beacon of health. When Tate most likely goes down with another injury, Isaiah Crowell has the talent to be an RB1. If he weren’t fumbling and dropping passes, I’d be scared of him supplanting Tate sooner rather than later. If you can add Crowell or acquire him cheaply, do so.
Darren Sproles will be out a couple of weeks. You probably weren’t starting him anyway, but it could help LeSean McCoy to continue to get back on track.
Reggie Bush announced he’ll be back in week 7 vs. the Saints. All bets are off… #RevengeGame
Where the Bengals are right now, I think that A.J. Green is certainly going to sit out another week after this week, and Marvin Jones was placed on Injured Reserved yesterday. Mo Sanu continues to be a WR2 with A.J. Green out and should continue to be a WR3 when he returns.
CHUTES AND LADDERS
Chutes:
-Wes Welker is someone who I’m not going to say has to be rostered in shallow leagues at this point. Emmanuel Sanders has clearly taken over as the short-to-mid range receptions hog. So many weapons there, and he’ll be inconsistent at best moving forward.
-C.J. Spiller under-utilization is criminal. The Bills simply don’t know how to use him, and Fred Jackson is strangely once again the best back in this backfield and maybe the only consistently startable player in Buffalo. Kudos to friend of AGSH, J.J. Zachariason of NumberFire.com, for being the lone rider on the Fred Jackson bandwagon this offseason.
-Roddy White has had a lot of drops this year. Matt Ryan is under constant pressure. Julio Jones is healthy and the clear number 1 in the offense. Time to temper on Roddy.
Ladders:
Matt Forte is tied for 9th among all players with 55 targets. There’s not another Running Back in the top 40 in targets. Fantasy Nugget: All RB touches aren’t equal. Receptions are worth more than carries because they inherently equate to more yardage. Forte is very special and he’s a better fantasy player than anyone not name, “DeMarco Murray”.
Malcom Floyd has at least 70 yards or a TD in all but one game this season. Eddie Royal is now dinged up a bit. Floyd is injury prone, but is a serious deep threat and has earned the trust of Phillip Rivers.
Cleveland D/ST Next 3 matchups: @Jax, OAK, TB. Enough analysis there.
‘Til next week. Hit me up on twitter @NotFakeFantasy
Aaron Rodgers photo rights reserved Mike Morbeck @Flickr
